Supply chain attacks continue to pose a serious threat across the cybersecurity ecosystem—and like most threats, they’re evolving quickly. A supply chain attack in 2026 looks very different from one in 2021.
Recent data from Risk Management Platform IO reveals just how widespread and damaging these incidents have become. Among organizations that suffered a third‑party or supply chain attack:
- 38 percent experienced customer, employee, or partner data breaches
- 35 percent faced financial losses or unplanned costs (remediation, fines, legal fees)
- 33 percent dealt with temporary system outages or operational disruptions
The fallout doesn’t stop there. Of organizations that experienced a customer data breach, 36 percent reported customer or partner churn or loss of trust, and 28 percent faced increased scrutiny from partners or suppliers.
“Cybersecurity leaders clearly recognize the importance of supply chain security, but many still underestimate how complex and interdependent modern supply networks have become,” says Chris Newton‑Smith, CEO of IO. “This confidence needs to be matched by continuous action to avoid the domino effect across networks, impacting customer trust, finances, and operations.”
Yet despite the rising stakes, only 23 percent of respondents ranked supply chain compromise among their top emerging threats—placing it below AI misuse, misinformation, and phishing.
Threats are becoming stealthier and more destructive
According to Javed Hasan, CEO and co‑founder of Lineaje, supply chain attacks are becoming both stealthier and more destructive.
“They are often starting with compromised software components that silently slip into trusted systems,” Hasan explains. With so much of today’s technology built on open‑source code, a lack of ongoing maintenance and oversight makes many components attractive entry points for attackers.
For MSPs, he says, this means looking much deeper into the software stack:
- Tracking both direct and nested dependencies
- Maintaining an up‑to‑date SBOM
- Verifying the source and integrity of third‑party components
- Strengthening incident response and risk management practices
Hasan predicts that 2026 will mark the rise of self‑securing AI within the software supply chain. As AI becomes embedded across applications, the entire lifecycle—data ingestion, model training, deployment—must be treated as part of the supply chain and secured proactively.
“By the end of this year, selecting self‑securing AI applications will define trust, integrity, and resilience across the software supply chain,” he says.
Point‑in‑time assessments aren’t enough
Calum Baird, Senior DFIR Consultant and SOC Team Leader at MSP, Systal Technology Solutions, stresses that MSPs must stay vigilant.
“A lot can change in a year, and annual point‑in‑time checks of your supply chain partners are simply not enough,” Baird says.
He recommends that MSPs:
- Review onboarding and risk assessment processes
- Move beyond checkbox compliance
- Evaluate the real‑world effectiveness of supply chain partners’ security controls
- Conduct ongoing assessments, not one‑time reviews
With attackers leveraging AI to improve speed and scale—and the gap shrinking between CVE publication and mass exploitation—Baird suggests many organizations should shift toward Continuous Threat Exposure Management (CTEM) for supply chain monitoring.
He also emphasizes the importance of preparing for the inevitable. “Organizations should consider a breach in terms of ‘when,’ not ‘if.’ Planning ahead for a breach, your response, and potential impact helps map the blast radius of a supply chain compromise.”
Modern attacks target trust—and move faster
Trevor Horwitz, CISO of TrustNet, says supply chain attacks today are more targeted and identity‑driven than those seen just a few years ago.
“We’ve moved from broad ransomware campaigns to strategic compromise of trusted intermediaries such as MSPs, SaaS providers, and identity platforms,” Horwitz says. “Attackers aren’t just going after the strongest door; they’re going after the most connected one.”
If attackers compromise:
- Privileged access
- Remote management tools
- Federated identity relationships
…they can scale quickly across multiple organizations.
AI is accelerating the threat in other ways, too. Social engineering is more convincing, phishing is more personalized, and impersonation attacks are harder to detect. At the same time, organizations are adopting new vendor tools—many with embedded AI—without understanding the downstream risks.
“The biggest issue is not malicious AI,” Horwitz warns. “It is unmanaged trust relationships and unclear accountability for third‑party access.”
Building resilience
As supply chain attacks grow more complex, interconnected, and accelerated by AI, organizations can’t afford to treat them as occasional or peripheral risks. The modern supply chain is vast, deeply interdependent, and increasingly targeted — which means defense requires continuous visibility, stronger accountability, and proactive security across every layer of the software and vendor ecosystem. For MSPs and their customers, staying resilient comes down to one principle: trust must be earned, verified, and monitored at all times. The organizations that recognize this shift — and adapt their processes, tooling, and partnerships accordingly — will be far better positioned to protect their operations, their data, and the trust of the customers who rely on them.
Photo: MAFPHOTOART8 / Shutterstock
